ARIMA-based forecasting of the effects of wildfire on the increasing tree cover trend and recurrence interval of woody encroachment in grazing land

Invasive tree removal from grazing lands using costly brush management practices is widely employed. However, wildfire-like natural events can also prevent the increasing trend of woody encroachment in at no cost, instead expensive prescribed burning. This study aims to estimate effects wildfire 2002 on trends during post-wildfire period (2003–20), as well recurrence interval a site United States. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed forecast cover period. We found that pre-wildfire 4.26% total area, which decreased 1.42% immediately after wildfire. During 2003–20, contributed an lowering woody-dominated areas by 6.59%. The wildfire-recovered area converted again 8 years, due recurring encroachment. Therefore, it critical implement strategies stop plant following • Grazing USA are increasingly being invaded trees. Wildfire reduces immediately. has long-term reduction effect invasive tree-dominated areas. Within few reclaimed grasslands into To maintain rangelands, proactive and early required.